Welcome to London Accord

Participants Menu

Tomorrow's Model

How much will CO2 emissions be reduced?

Current CO2 reduction policies involve capping total emissions through a system of tradable allowances. There are both regional and multilateral initiatives:

The EU unilateral plan will reduce emissions by 20% by 2020. However those emissions which are in the ETS will need to reduce by a greater amount (by about 25%). In the accompanying report, this is called the 'Red Scenario'

Current US proposals are for a cap and trade regime that targets peak carbon around 2020 with emissions 60% below 2005 levels by 2050 The IPCC category II proposals also target peak carbon in 2020

The IPCC Category I proposal is to achieve reductions to 25-15% of 1990 levels by 2050. The EU has said it will work towards a 30% reduction by 2020 if multilateral agreements are reached. In the report, this is called the 'Orange Scenario'

The IPCC would like heavy reductions of CO2e. Many Developing countries want Europe and N.America to bear the brunt of CO2 reduction. They propose allowances for developed countries to be reduced to 40% of of 1990 levels by 2020 and 10% by 2050. In the report, this is called the 'Green Scenario'

Which of these scenarios do you think is likely to happen?

Choose your scenarios

	% of 1990 CO2 emissions allowed
	Red Scenario EU/ETS 2020:20	US 2020 peak carbon	IPCC Category II	Orange Scenario EU/ETS 2020/30	Green Scenario EU/ETS 2020/40
2010	93.00	123.67	90.00	93.00	93.00
2011	91.38	119.96	87.75	88.77	86.21
2012	89.79	116.36	85.56	84.73	79.92
2013	88.23	112.87	83.42	80.87	74.08
2014	86.69	109.48	81.33	77.19	68.68
2015	85.19	106.20	79.30	73.68	63.66
2016	83.70	103.01	77.32	70.33	59.01
2017	82.25	99.92	75.38	67.13	54.71
2018	80.82	96.92	73.50	64.08	50.71
2019	79.41	94.02	71.66	61.16	47.01
2020	78.03	91.19	69.87	58.38	43.58
2021	76.67	88.46	68.12	55.72	40.40
2022	75.34	85.81	66.42	53.19	37.45
2023	74.03	83.23	64.76	50.77	34.72
2024	72.74	80.73	63.14	48.46	32.18
2025	71.47	78.31	61.56	46.25	29.83
2026	70.23	75.96	60.02	44.15	27.65
2027	69.01	73.68	58.52	42.14	25.64
2028	67.81	71.47	57.06	40.22	23.76
2029	66.63	69.33	55.63	38.39	22.03
2030	65.47	67.25	54.24	36.64	20.42
2031	64.33	65.23	52.89	34.98	18.93
2032	63.21	63.27	51.56	33.39	17.55
2033	62.11	61.38	50.27	31.87	16.27
2034	61.03	59.54	49.02	30.42	15.08
2035	59.97	57.75	47.79	29.03	13.98
2036	58.92	56.02	46.60	27.71	12.96
2037	57.90	54.34	45.43	26.45	12.01
2038	56.89	52.71	44.30	25.25	11.14
2039	55.90	51.12	43.19	24.10	10.32
2040	54.93	49.59	42.11	23.00	9.57
2041	53.97	48.10	41.06	21.96	8.87
2042	53.03	46.66	40.03	20.96	8.22
2043	52.11	45.26	39.03	20.00	7.62
2044	51.20	43.90	38.05	19.09	7.07
2045	50.31	42.59	37.10	18.22	6.55
2046	49.44	41.31	36.18	17.39	6.07
2047	48.58	40.07	35.27	16.60	5.63
2048	47.73	38.87	34.39	15.85	5.22
2049	46.90	37.70	33.53	15.13	4.84
2050	46.08	36.57	32.69	14.44	4.48
Annual Reduction Factor	1.74%	3.00%	2.50%	4.55%	7.30%